100% Electric Transportation and 100% Solar By 2030


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Capturing The Sun is also available at www.sunisthefuture.com (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)

Capturing The Sun is also available at www.sunisthefuture.com (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)

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This is a presentation titled “Clean Disruption: 100% Electric Transportation and 100% Solar Energy By 2030“, presented to AltCars Expo and Conference in Santa Monica, CA, by Tony Seba, on Sep. 19, 2014. In his matter of fact manner, Mr. Seba pointed out the historical pattern of disruptions from the past as a way to help us to envision our future of Solar-Electric-Self Driving Vehicles, below:

 Mr. Seba points out the 5 reasons why EV (electric vehicle) is “disruptive”:

  1. Electric Motor is 5x+ more energy efficient than the internal combustion engine (ICE).
  2. EV energy costs are 10x cheaper than ICE vehicle.
  3. EV maintenance costs are 5-10x cheaper than ICE vehicle.
  4. Wireless charging
  5. Electric Motor is far more powerful than ICE.

The question to ask now is: how long will the transition take from ICE to EV? It is comforting to know that since 2010, the battery costs have been dropping at ~16%/year as a result of 3 multi-trillion dollar industries (IT/Electronics, Automotive, and Energy) all interested in investing in battery technology. The simple fact that Tesla’s $5 Billion Battery GigaFactory is being built will double world battery production and will bring down the battery pack costs by >30%, leading to the eventual cost of an average EV at US$31,000 by 2020 and low-end EV at US$21,000 by 2022. Therefore, mass migration from ICE (gasoline) to electric vehicles is anticipated to occur around 2017-2018 and 100% of mainstream cars will be electric by 2030.

Another functionality of the EV is its eventual autonomous feature. Along with this feature, there will be improved highway capacity and higher efficiency. This will translate to a shrinking auto industry and shrinking need of parking spaces or need of car ownerships. Solar industry has been growing exponentially 43%/year since 2000. If such growth rate continues, 100% of the energy in the world will be solar by 2030. We will be facing a new world, a cleaner, healthier, and more efficient world.
~have a bright and sunny day~
Gathered, written, photographed, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker

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