Sun Is The Future

Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

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Today, I’d like to introduce you to Tony Seba, the Stanford Professor with 20+ years of solid operating experience in fast growing clean tech companies. He was the vice president, corporate development at “Utility Scale Solar, Inc.” where he helped the company grow from the garage-stage through growth strategy, fundraising, business development with plant developers and partners. He was the founder and CEO of PrintNation.com (a B2B ecommerce site which he established as the undisputed leader in its market segment, winning much top industry awards as the Upside Hot 100 and the Forbes.com B2B ‘Best of the Web.’ Seba led two venture capital rounds raising more than $31 million in funding from well-known venture funds, hired a complete management team, 100+ employees, and managed the development of strategic partnerships with some of the world’s top companies.

Tony Seba demonstrates “Why do smart people at smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate or lead market disruptions?” He helps us to understand why so-called experts tend not to be able to correctly make correct forecast about technological disruption. In these cases, the Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:

• Technology Cost Curves: exponential growth, with example of lithium ion battery storage technology and solar PV costs
• Technology Convergence: disruption caused by the convergence of several technologies, enabling functionalities that may not have existed in the past (2007 for smartphone.
• Exponential Market Adoption S-Curve: upon reaching the tipping point, technological disruption would grow exponentially and continue to grow at a steeper rate (growing even more quickly). This phenomenon was/is observed in technologies such as colored tv, smartphones, tablet, and will also be true in solar and EV.
• Business Model Innovation: examples such as Uber (started in 2009 and now has more bookings than whole taxi industry in USA), Didi, Lyft, Ola, AirBnb…

Five technologies (below), plus business model innovation  will be disrupting, within the coming decade, all of the energy and transportation system as we know it for purely economic reasons. It will be the: Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:

• Batteries: Li-on battery costs dropping exponentially (cost dropped 14% per year between 1995 – 2010, 16% per year between 2010 – 2014, due to other industries’ (IT, Electronics, Automotive, and Energy) investment). With more investments continue to come from BYD, Foxconn, Samsung SDI, Dyson, and 12+ megafactories coming online by 2020, cost curve, cost will continues to drop about 20%  after 2014. Furthermore, the grid works like a just-in-time supply chain without inventory. This inefficient use of assets designed for peak is waiting to be disrupted. NextEra Energy CEO Jim Robo   commented, “Post 2020 there may never be another peaker built in the U.S.” In Feb. 2017, Southern California Edison contracted the system to meet PEAK Demand  needs using battery technology following its Alyson Canyon natural gas leaks. Tesla’s 80 MWh system was built in 88 days that no natural gas peaker could have competed.  There are also business model innovation that treats storage as a service, reducing utility bills by 10%. By 2020, it will cost American families about $1.2 per day for a full day of electricity storage. People will do this because it will save people money, purely for economics.
• Electric Vehicles (EV’s): Consumer reports gave Tesla Model S an evaluation of 103 out of possible 100 for Car of the Year in 2013. Electric Vehicle (EV) is 5x more energy efficient than Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). It is also cheaper to transmit/distribute electrons than atoms, therefore EVs are 10x cheaper to charge/fuel than ICE vehicles. EVs are also cheaper to maintain (ICE vehicles have 2000+ moving parts whereas EVs have 18-20 moving parts). EVs lifetime is about 2.5x greater than ICE vehicles. In 2017, GM’s Chevy Bolt EV has 200-mile range and costs $37,500 whereas Tesla Model 3 has 215-mile range and costs $35,000. By 2025, every new vehicles will be of EV.
• Autonomous Vehicles: the biggest disrupter. The World’s first self-driving taxi debuted in Singapore in 2016. Uber’s self-driving fleet arrived in Pittsburgh in August of 2016. 33 corporations are investing billions  and working on autonomous vehicles. Tesla also announced that by the end of 2017, all Tesla vehicles can go from CA to NY without needing human controls (level 3).  Elon Musk also said that Tesla will be able to  transition to level 5 (fully self-driving, no pedals nor steering wheel) in 2019. Two technologies making autonomous vehicles possible: 1. LIDAR (laser+radar) price dropped from about $70,000 in 2012 to $1,000 in 2014, and $250 in 2016, and soon to be $90. 2. Super computing power priced at $46 million in 2000, $59 in 2016. These technologies are improving at 1,000x in the next 8 years.  Open source is also responsible much of the growth in the future.
• Ride-Hailing:“Transportation As A Service” initiated from a think tank founded by Tony Seba, a disruption of transportation. Reason behind this concept: most American family spend about $10,000 to own and use a car per year that is only used about 4% of the time. Disruption: 1. electric vehicles 2. self-driving 3. ride-hailing. These are convergence of multiple business and technology models. The day the regulatory agency approves the autonomous vehicle is the day when the cost of per mile transport will be 10x cheaper for transport as a service than it is to own a car for consumers. Consumers will be giving up car ownership and henceforth the collapse of ownership of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and IO (individual ownership) of vehicles. Therefore there will be 80% fewer cars on the road, parking lots, and insurance for vehicles. Annual demand for new vehicles will also decrease by 70% and demand for oil will also decrease by 2021 (around the time when oil costs about $25 per barrel).
• Solar: example: Denmark’s Copenhagen International  School generating 50% of its power need from solar (even the side of the building is part of this solar power plant). Solar PV cost dropped from $100./W in 1970’s to $0.33/W now. This is about 303x improvement. Globally, solar installations have doubled every 2 years since 2000. At the time of Tony Seba’s presentation, solar represented 1.5% of the power generation (it is now about 2%). If we use the 1.5% to calculate, at the doubling rate every 2 years (1.5%, 3%, 6%, 12%, 24%, 48%, 96%), it would only take 6-7 doublings (or 12-14 years) to reach 100% of the world’s energy generation (around 2030). Since 1970’s, the price or cost all conventional resource-based energy sources (such as oil, natural gas, or coal) have gone up by 6x-16x while solar has gone down by 303x. The cost of solar will continue to drop. According to Deutsche Bank, solar will be below Grid Parity for 80% of the global market by the end of 2017, meaning 80% of the solar world market will be at or below utility rate. According to PWC, 69% of corporations (Apple, Facebook, etc.) are actively pursuing solar purchase because it makes economic sense to go solar. Solar growth rate will accelerate. By 2020, it is expected that the cost of rooftop solar will cost less than the cost of transmission, without any subsidy for solar. Central generation will be obsolete. There will be no other form of energy generation that will be cheaper than “solar+storage”. By 2020, it is expected that the solar growth rate will really take off. Utility scale solar will drop below 3 cents per kWh (nothing will be able to compete with solar at 3 cents per kWh). Solar at 5.8 cents per kWh is competitive with oil at $10 per barrel and gas at $5 per MMBtu. In 2016, solar costed: in Chile was at 2.91 cents per kWh (unsubsidized) & Dubai at 2.99 cents per kWh. In 2016 Dubai PPA at 2.42 cents per kWh (unsubsidized). Tucson Electric has just announced that Solar+Storage PPA at 4.5 cents per kWh. It no longer makes sense to build peaker plants when solar generation costs so much less. Distributed solar, due to economics, will make sense and will become the rule. In Australia, 25% of the homes are already using solar (it costs 12  cents for transmission while solar cost 7 cents to generate in Australia)

Economics is already here: Unsubsidized Solar & Autonomous EVs are No Longer the Transition but Disruption For Our Energy & Transportatioin! Tipping point will be around 2020.

Besides pure economics, think of the: decrease in pollution, slowing in climate change, decrease in international conflicts, and increase in local job opportunities as a result of these disruptions! Bravo For Clean Disruptions!

~have a bright and sunny day~

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun NunamakerPlease also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.cafepress.com/sunisthefuture

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

Below, is a re-post from a sister publication, Windermere Sun:

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With the Florida Sun, low cost of solar and improved battery technology, even without pro-solar policies such as renewable portfolio standard or power purchase agreements, Florida currently ranks 12th for cumulative solar capacity installed and is expected to continue to advance its position in light of the dramatic drop in cost of solar and improved battery technology.

Below are data gathered from FLSEIA (Florida Solar Energy Industries Association), on Florida Solar Industry:

• Solar Installed: 725.1 MW (404.7 MW in 2016)
• State Homes Powered by Solar: 79,000
• Percentage of State’s Electricity From Solar: 0.31% (that % keeps increasing)
• Solar Jobs and Ranking: 8,260 (5th in 2016)
• Solar Companies in State: 492 companies total; 69 manufacturers, 261 installers/developers, 153 others
• Total Solar Investment in State: $1,459.85 million ($523.64 million in 2016)
• Price Declines: 64% over the last 5 years
• Growth Projections and Ranking: 2,559 MW over next 5 years

For more solar data, click HERE.

Some Notable Solar Installations in Florida, below:

• Martin Next Generation Solar Energy Center: It is the solar parabolic-trough component of an integrated solar combined cycle 1150 MW plant, in western Martin County, Florida, just north of Indiantown, built by Florida Power & Light Company in 2010, with enough electricity to power 8,216 homes.
• Several large retailers in Florida have gone solar: 6th Street, Ace Hardware, Bronson and AMJ, Inc., General Growth Properties had installed one of the largest solar installations with 1 MW of solar capacity at their Altamonte Springs location.
• TIA Solar in Tampa also installed 1 MW of solar capacity in 2016, among the largest solar installations in Florida, with capacity to power more than 175 homes.

Florida State Solar Policy Resources, below:

• Florida Public Service Commission-(FPSC) regulates investor-owned electric, natural gas, water, and wastewater utilities. In the telecommunications industry, the FPSC facilitates competitive markets, has authority over intercarrier disputes, and oversees pay telephones, the federal Lifeline Assistance Program and Telecommunications Relay Service. The Florida Public Service Commission consists of five members appointed by the Governor and confirmed by the Senate. Commissioners serve four-year terms. One commissioner is a designated Chairman, elected by the Commission for a two-year term.The commissioners are Chairman Julie I. Brown, Ronald A. Brisé, Art Graham, Jimmy Patronis, and Donald Polmann. In essence, FPSC learn about the governing body that regulates electricity rates and services of Florida Public Utilities.
• Florida State Legislature-It is the two houses that act as the state legislature of the U.S. state of Florida. The Florida Constitution states that “The legislative power of the state shall be vested in a legislature of the State of Florida,” composed of a Senate and House of Representatives. The legislature is seated at the Florida State Capitol in Tallahassee. Both chambers have been under Republican control since 1996. The Legislature is composed of 160 state legislators (120 in the House and 40 in the Senate). Members are term-limited to eight consecutive years; however, there is no limit on the total number of terms (after sitting out two years, a member may run again). The state legislature meets beginning in March for a period not to exceed 60 calendar days. Special sessions are called as needed. In essence, FSL track pending legislation affecting solar energy, locate and contact individual legislators, and stay up to date on current legislative issues in Florida.
• Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services-FDACS is an executive department of the government of Florida.The Commissioner of Agriculture (directly elected by voters statewide for a four-year term, and a member of the Florida Cabinet) is the head of the department. The current commissioner is Adam Putnam. In essence, it finds/provides a wide range of information on state government energy programs, policy, projects, energy-saving strategies and energy-related statistics.
• Florida Energy System Consortium-The Florida Energy Systems Consortium (FESC) was created by the Florida State government to promote collaboration among the energy experts at its 12 supported universities to share energy-related expertise. The consortium assists the state in the development and implementation of an environmentally compatible, sustainable, and efficient energy strategic plan. The Consortium was charged to ‘perform research and development on innovative energy systems that lead to alternative energy strategies, improved energy efficiencies, and expanded economic development for the state‘. The legislature appropriated funding for research at five of the universities as well as support for education, outreach, and technology commercialization. The Consortium reports to and provides guidance on an as needed basis to the Florida Legislature, Executive Office of the Governor, and the Florida’s Office of Energy housed in the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. In essence, it assists the state in development and implementation of an environmentally compatible, sustainable, and efficient energy strategic plan.
• DSIRE Incentives Database Florida-It is a comprehensive source of information on state, local, utility,and federal incentives and policies that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency. DSIRE was established in 1995 and funded by the US Department of Energy and is an ongoing project of the North Carolina Solar Center and the Interstate Renewable Energy Council. It is essentially a public clearninghouse for specific solar energy incentives in Florida and across the United States.
• U.S. Energy Information Administration-Florida State Profile– (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information to promote sound policy-making, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA programs cover data on coal, petroleum, natural gas, electric, renewable and nuclear energy. EIA is part of the U.S. Department of Energy. It explores official energy statistics, including data on electricity supply and demand from the U.S. government
• EnergySage Solar Data Explorer-Florida-It reviews the costs and benefits of installing solar panels in Florida, based on real price data from solar quotes.

More posts on solar topics will be coming in our future posts at Windermere Sun.

Photographed, gathered, written, and posted by Windermere Sun-Susan Sun Nunamaker
More about the community at www.WindermereSun.com

We Need Fair Value of Solar

~have a bright and sunny day~

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.cafepress.com/sunisthefuture

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

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This is a repost from our sister publication, Windermere Sun, below:

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In March of 2017, according to a new U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, ten percent of all of the electricity generated in United States came from wind and solar power. This milestone demonstrates that renewable energy are becoming significant source of electricity in U.S. and no longer need to be classified as “alternative” energy. Texas is the biggest wind power producer while California is the largest solar producer in USA.

Below, in italics, is taken from EIA report on June 14, 2017)

For the first time, monthly electricity generation from wind and solar (including utility-scale plants and small-scale systems) exceeded 10% of total electricity generation in the United States, based on March data in EIA’s Electric Power Monthly. Electricity generation from both of these energy sources has grown with increases in wind and solar generating capacity. On an annual basis, wind and solar made up 7% of total U.S. electric generation in 2016.

Electricity generation from wind and solar follows seasonal patterns that reflect the seasonal availability of wind and sunshine. Within the United States, wind patterns vary based on geography. For example, wind-powered generating units in Texas, Oklahoma, and nearby states often have their highest output in spring months, while wind-powered generators in California are more likely to have their highest output in summer months.

Monthly solar output is highest in the summer months, regardless of location, because of the greater number of daylight hours. About half of all utility-scale solar power plants in the United States use some form of sun-tracking technology to improve their seasonal output.

Based on seasonal patterns in recent years, electricity generation from wind and solar will probably exceed 10% of total U.S. generation again in April 2017, then fall to less than 10% in the summer months. Since 2014, when EIA first began estimating monthly, state-level electricity generation from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems, combined wind and solar generation has reached its highest level in either the spring or fall. Because these seasons are times of generally low electricity demand, combined wind and solar generation also reached its highest share of the U.S. total during these times of year.

Based on annual data for 2016, Texas accounted for the largest total amount of wind and solar electricity generation. Nearly all of this generation was from wind, as Texas generates more wind energy than any other state. As a share of the state’s total electricity generation, wind and solar output was highest in Iowa, where wind and solar made up 37% of electricity generation in 2016. In addition to Iowa, wind and solar provided at least 20% of 2016 electricity generation in six other states.

In almost all states, wind makes up a larger share of the state’s total electricity generation than solar. Among the top dozen states, only California and Arizona had more solar generation than wind in 2016. Three states in the top 12—Iowa, Kansas, and North Dakota—had no generation from utility-scale solar plants in 2016 and relatively little output from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems.

EIA analyst Owen Comstock said state renewable goals are one of the biggest reasons how wind and solar are able to reach this milestone. Most states require a certain portion of their electricity to be generated from renweables. States such as California is currently setting its goal to obtain 50% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, and lawmakers in CA are debating about the possibility of expanding that to 100% by 2045.

For those of us in Florida, even without with any government incentive or mandate, due to the dramatic dropping of cost in solar and wind, as long as we pay attention and take actions, we will be on our way to hit the 100% renewables goal before 2045. Based on SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association), Floridians have installed 725.1 MW solar by 2016 (404.7 MW was installed in 2016). More will be provided in the next post.

 

Photographed, gathered, written, and posted by Windermere Sun-Susan Sun Nunamaker
More about the community at www.WindermereSun.com

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at info.WindermereSun@gmail.com

~have a bright and sunny day~

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker

We Need Fair Value of Solar

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Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.cafepress.com/sunisthefuture

Google+

 

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.cafepress.com/sunisthefuture

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

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Four days after President Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, the top American official in China, David Rank, tendered his resignation, citing the president’s decision. Rank, who served 27 years in the foreign service, sits down with Judy Woodruff in his first interview since stepping down.

~have a bright and sunny day~

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun NunamakerPlease also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.cafepress.com/sunisthefuture

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

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“Pittsburgh, Not Paris” Rally has caused much controversy in Pittsburgh.

Mayor Bill Peduto of Pittsburgh has issued an executive order in response to Trump’s Paris Climate Decision (withdrawing United States from the Paris Climate Agreement), pledging Pittsburgh (one of the 82 mayors and 10 governors across U.S.A.) would continue to follow the guidelines of the Paris Climate Agreement (aka Paris Accord).

Peduto Executive Order (2030 Objectives)

• 100% Renewable Electricity (City operations)
• Zero Waste (Citywide)
• Reduce Energy Consumption 50% (Citywide)
• Reduce Transportation Emissions 50% (Citywide)

Pittsburgh has set an example as the model city that, it is possible, from innovation and change through sustainability, to bring back the economy.

 

~have a bright and sunny day~

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun NunamakerPlease also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.cafepress.com/sunisthefuture

Google+

 

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