Today, I’d like to introduce you to Tony Seba, the Stanford Professor with 20+ years of solid operating experience in fast growing clean tech companies. He was the vice president, corporate development at “Utility Scale Solar, Inc.” where he helped the company grow from the garage-stage through growth strategy, fundraising, business development with plant developers and partners. He was the founder and CEO of PrintNation.com (a B2B ecommerce site which he established as the undisputed leader in its market segment, winning much top industry awards as the Upside Hot 100 and the Forbes.com B2B ‘Best of the Web.’ Seba led two venture capital rounds raising more than $31 million in funding from well-known venture funds, hired a complete management team, 100+ employees, and managed the development of strategic partnerships with some of the world’s top companies.
Tony Seba demonstrates “Why do smart people at smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate or lead market disruptions?” He helps us to understand why so-called experts tend not to be able to correctly make correct forecast about technological disruption. In these cases, the Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:
Technology Cost Curves: exponential growth, with example of lithium ion battery storage technology and solar PV costs
Technology Convergence: disruption caused by the convergence of several technologies, enabling functionalities that may not have existed in the past (2007 for smartphone.
Exponential Market Adoption S-Curve: upon reaching the tipping point, technological disruption would grow exponentially and continue to grow at a steeper rate (growing even more quickly). This phenomenon was/is observed in technologies such as colored tv, smartphones, tablet, and will also be true in solar and EV.
Business Model Innovation: examples such as Uber (started in 2009 and now has more bookings than whole taxi industry in USA), Didi, Lyft, Ola, AirBnb…
Five technologies (below), plus business model innovation will be disrupting, within the coming decade, all of the energy and transportation system as we know it for purely economic reasons. It will be the: Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:
Batteries: Li-on battery costs dropping exponentially (cost dropped 14% per year between 1995 – 2010, 16% per year between 2010 – 2014, due to other industries’ (IT, Electronics, Automotive, and Energy) investment). With more investments continue to come from BYD, Foxconn, Samsung SDI, Dyson, and 12+ megafactories coming online by 2020, cost curve, cost will continues to drop about 20% after 2014. Furthermore, the grid works like a just-in-time supply chain without inventory. This inefficient use of assets designed for peak is waiting to be disrupted. NextEra Energy CEO Jim Robo commented, “Post 2020 there may never be another peaker built in the U.S.” In Feb. 2017, Southern California Edison contracted the system to meet PEAK Demand needs using battery technology following its Alyson Canyon natural gas leaks. Tesla’s 80 MWh system was built in 88 days that no natural gas peaker could have competed. There are also business model innovation that treats storage as a service, reducing utility bills by 10%. By 2020, it will cost American families about $1.2 per day for a full day of electricity storage. People will do this because it will save people money, purely for economics.
Electric Vehicles (EV’s): Consumer reports gave Tesla Model S an evaluation of 103 out of possible 100 for Car of the Year in 2013. Electric Vehicle (EV) is 5x more energy efficient than Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). It is also cheaper to transmit/distribute electrons than atoms, therefore EVs are 10x cheaper to charge/fuel than ICE vehicles. EVs are also cheaper to maintain (ICE vehicles have 2000+ moving parts whereas EVs have 18-20 moving parts). EVs lifetime is about 2.5x greater than ICE vehicles. In 2017, GM’s Chevy Bolt EV has 200-mile range and costs $37,500 whereas Tesla Model 3 has 215-mile range and costs $35,000. By 2025, every new vehicles will be of EV.
Autonomous Vehicles: the biggest disrupter. The World’s first self-driving taxi debuted in Singapore in 2016. Uber’s self-driving fleet arrived in Pittsburgh in August of 2016. 33 corporations are investing billions and working on autonomous vehicles. Tesla also announced that by the end of 2017, all Tesla vehicles can go from CA to NY without needing human controls (level 3). Elon Musk also said that Tesla will be able to transition to level 5 (fully self-driving, no pedals nor steering wheel) in 2019. Two technologies making autonomous vehicles possible: 1. LIDAR (laser+radar) price dropped from about $70,000 in 2012 to $1,000 in 2014, and $250 in 2016, and soon to be $90. 2. Super computing power priced at $46 million in 2000, $59 in 2016. These technologies are improving at 1,000x in the next 8 years. Open source is also responsible much of the growth in the future.
Ride-Hailing:“Transportation As A Service” initiated from a think tank founded by Tony Seba, a disruption of transportation. Reason behind this concept: most American family spend about $10,000 to own and use a car per year that is only used about 4% of the time. Disruption: 1. electric vehicles 2. self-driving 3. ride-hailing. These are convergence of multiple business and technology models. The day the regulatory agency approves the autonomous vehicle is the day when the cost of per mile transport will be 10x cheaper for transport as a service than it is to own a car for consumers. Consumers will be giving up car ownership and henceforth the collapse of ownership of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and IO (individual ownership) of vehicles. Therefore there will be 80% fewer cars on the road, parking lots, and insurance for vehicles. Annual demand for new vehicles will also decrease by 70% and demand for oil will also decrease by 2021 (around the time when oil costs about $25 per barrel).
Solar: example: Denmark’s Copenhagen International School generating 50% of its power need from solar (even the side of the building is part of this solar power plant). Solar PV cost dropped from $100./W in 1970’s to $0.33/W now. This is about 303x improvement. Globally, solar installations have doubled every 2 years since 2000. At the time of Tony Seba’s presentation, solar represented 1.5% of the power generation (it is now about 2%). If we use the 1.5% to calculate, at the doubling rate every 2 years (1.5%, 3%, 6%, 12%, 24%, 48%, 96%), it would only take 6-7 doublings (or 12-14 years) to reach 100% of the world’s energy generation (around 2030). Since 1970’s, the price or cost all conventional resource-based energy sources (such as oil, natural gas, or coal) have gone up by 6x-16x while solar has gone down by 303x. The cost of solar will continue to drop. According to Deutsche Bank, solar will be below Grid Parity for 80% of the global market by the end of 2017, meaning 80% of the solar world market will be at or below utility rate. According to PWC, 69% of corporations (Apple, Facebook, etc.) are actively pursuing solar purchase because it makes economic sense to go solar. Solar growth rate will accelerate. By 2020, it is expected that the cost of rooftop solar will cost less than the cost of transmission, without any subsidy for solar. Central generation will be obsolete. There will be no other form of energy generation that will be cheaper than “solar+storage”. By 2020, it is expected that the solar growth rate will really take off. Utility scale solar will drop below 3 cents per kWh (nothing will be able to compete with solar at 3 cents per kWh). Solar at 5.8 cents per kWh is competitive with oil at $10 per barrel and gas at $5 per MMBtu. In 2016, solar costed: in Chile was at 2.91 cents per kWh (unsubsidized) & Dubai at 2.99 cents per kWh. In 2016 Dubai PPA at 2.42 cents per kWh (unsubsidized). Tucson Electric has just announced that Solar+Storage PPA at 4.5 cents per kWh. It no longer makes sense to build peaker plants when solar generation costs so much less. Distributed solar, due to economics, will make sense and will become the rule. In Australia, 25% of the homes are already using solar (it costs 12 cents for transmission while solar cost 7 cents to generate in Australia)
Economics is already here: Unsubsidized Solar & Autonomous EVs are No Longer the Transition but Disruption For Our Energy & Transportatioin! Tipping point will be around 2020.
Besides pure economics, think of the: decrease in pollution, slowing in climate change, decrease in international conflicts, and increase in local job opportunities as a result of these disruptions! Bravo For Clean Disruptions!
Elon’s Mission in Accelerating World’s Transition to Sustainable Energy Via 3 Most Important Paths
Elon’s Integrated Future
New Solar Roof with greater longevity than conventional roof technology
Tesla’s New Solar Roof with greater longevity than conventional roof technology
Tesla’s Powerwall 2
(Please click on red links & note magenta)
Instead of the conventional 25-year roof, how would you like to install solar roofs that would effectively cost less, better insulation, last almost 75 years for your house, with more appealing styles to choose from, no less?! Yesterday, the unveiling of Tesla’s new Solar Roof took place at the Desperate Housewives set in LA, CA. The original roof had been replaced by solar roof tops (photos above)! Can you really tell that these are solar roof tops if I didn’t mention it in advance?
Tesla’s New Solar Roof with greater longevity than conventional roof technology
Tesla’s New Solar Roof with greater longevity than conventional roof technology
Our WonderWorker Elon Musk continues to amaze us! When I first heard the news about Tesla may be acquiring Solar City, I suspected that Elon is cooking something in that genius kitchen of his…..behold! We are all totally ecstatic yesterday, upon receiving the news about Tesla’s new Solar Roof and his presentation about the three critical components in accelerating our transition toward the sustainable future: Generation-Storage-Transport—–>Solar Roof-Battery-EV —-> Solar Roof-Tesla’s Powerwall 2-Tesla’s EV. I did not write Tesla’s Solar Roof-Tesla’s Powerwall 2-Tesla’s EV because the vote regarding the acquisition is on November 17, not yet a fait accompli. Personally, I believe it would be a wise step for Solar City to take, to become part of Elon Musk’s Solution To The Energy Equation. There will be a lot of individuals, families, groups, businesses that will want to take part in solving the global warming problem and in reducing CO2 emission. Furthermore, for those who want to drive an EV, one expects that they are also more likely to also want to install solar roof tops and vise versa.
Elon also pointed out that the future is bright for both utilities and local power generation (solar roof tops) because as we transition our energy use into all electric, that will roughly triple the electricity that will be needed.
In Elon’s presentation of a beautiful, affordable, and seamlessly integrated future: EV(electric vehicle)+Powerwall+Solar Roof awaits us, shown below:
For all the solar installers out there, it might be a good idea to devote part of your business to subcontract for Tesla/Solar City, because this integrated solar roof will probably be proprietary in the next few years.
We Look Forward To Our Renewable/Solar Future!
As one of the audience at the unveiling shouted out, “Elon, Save Us!”
Elon, now help us to get the solar self-driving car !
This is a repost from one of our sister publication, Windermere Sun, below:
(Please click on red links & note magenta)
A terrific presentation by Tony Seba, Instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption, and Clean Energy, on explanation for Why Current Energy & Transportation Will be Obsolete by 2030 should not be missed by any one interested in present and future trend! It was presented as the keynote at the Swebank Nordic Energy Summit in Oslo, Norway, on March 17th, 2016. It is based on the book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation“, asserting that four technology categories will disrupt energy and transportation by: 1. Battery/Energy Storage 2. Electric Vehicles 3. Self-Driving Vehicles 4. Solar Energy.
The outcome of the Clean Disruption is such that by 2030:
All new vehicles will be electric
All new vehicles will be autonomous (self driving)
Oil will be obsolete
Coal, natural gas, and nuclear will be obsolete
Individual car ownership will be obsolete
All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)
EV (electrical vehicles are more energy efficient and more powerful than internal combustion engine, better performance, and fewer moving parts (therefore less maintenance)).
Ford and GM are becoming mobility services companies in addition to EV services. GM is also investing $half a billion into Lyft (Uber’s competitor) and just purchased $1 billion worth of self driving cars company. Foxconn and various computer companies are also getting into EV market. EV (electrical vehicle) companies such as Nissan and Tesla are offering limited free EV charging networks. SV (self driving vehicle) Startup Volta is offering free EV charging in exchange for media rights at prime high-value properties. Ultimately, one may power one’s house with one’s car and vise versa. EV’s and SV’s are essentially Computer on Wheels and Power Plant on Wheel !About half of the world’s population are ready to receive SV’s (self driving vehicles)! About half of Uber rides are carpooling in San Francisco area. Parking spaces will become more efficiently utilized as power plants.
Solar energy has gone down in cost 200 times since 1970’s. Solar installations has doubled every 2 years since 1990’s. It will take 7 more doublings or 14 years before Solar Energy would become 100% of world’s energy. Since 1970’s, Solar PV has improved cost by three thousand times relative to most conventional forms of energy and its cost will continue to go down. Solar energy on roof tops, when unsubsidized, is just as cheap as conventional energy, that is what’s called the Grid Parity (which has already been reached in 47 states in the USA in 2016) and up to 80% of the global market by the end of 2017 (according to Deutsche Bank). The adoption curve of any technology throughout history has taken the form of S curve and will likely be the same for solar technology adoption. The tipping point for Solar to reach its full adoption, commented by Tony Seba, is what he calls the Solar God Parity, the Point of No Return regardless where one is anywhere on planet earth, the cost of producing energy through solar rooftop is cheaper than the cost of transmission. Mr. Seba anticipates the Solar God Parity will be reached by 2020, the point of disruption or tipping point. Utility scale solar in USA and elsewhere on earth, unsubsidized, has dropped to 5 cents/kWh in 2015 in Nevada and in Saudi Arabia at 4.9 cents/kWh. (consider: oil at 5.8 cents/kWh is equivalent to $10 per barrel). Cost of solar continues to drop. This is all happening right NOW!
Further interview with Tony Seba, below:
Can you believe it ?! In USA, we would only need 10,000 sq miles of solar to power the whole country, compared to U.S. oil and gas industry leasing 150,000 sq miles of land and water to pump oil and gas to produce one third of our energy needs. So, in USA, oil and gas industry is using 15 times as much area to generate one third as much energy produced by solar. In USA, we have up to 13,000 sq miles of parking space, so simply by placing solar canopies on all the parking spaces would generate more energy needs for the whole country for a year. Furthermore, converting just 10% of our parking lots to solar canopies would produce sufficient energy to power all of our electric vehicles in USA for a year. Yes, we’re looking forward to an exciting Clean Energy Future! It is important for policy makers to realize that they have the choice either to Lead or to Follow. If policy makers want to create jobs and wealth, it is necessary to lead rather than to follow. So, let’s vote for politicians who will lead and support clean and solar energy.
Here, in Windermere Sun, we look for ways to help our readers/viewers to be better prepared for the transition into our new Clean Energy Age. We will help you to find ways to reduce cost of living and develop new business models and formats in this Clean Energy Age through information and collaboration.
This is a repost from one of our sister publications, Windermere Sun.
Solar Panels Reflecting the Sky, by Debbie Mous, brought to you by WindermereSun.com
(Please click on red links & note magenta)
Change is in the air.Valencia College (1800 S. Kirkman Rd., Orlando, FL) of Central Florida is moving with time, leading and educating Central Floridians during the National Drive Electric Week 2016. National Drive Electric Week, from September 10-18, 2016, is a nationwide celebration to heighten awareness of today’s widespread availability of plug-ins, hybrids, and all electric vehicles, be it cars, trucks, motorcycles, or buses.The event itself started back in 2011 as National Plug In Day with the simple idea to hold simultaneous events across the country on the same day. It has since evolved and expanded into an entire week of events and changed the name to emphasize the component that would bring tremendous impact to our planet earth: Driving Electric Vehicle! This Orlando event is one of more than 100 across the country where EV owners (aka “EV-angelists”) are holding electric car parades and series of events including the launching of new public EV charging stations. On Saturday, September 10, 2016, at parking lot F of Valencia College West Campus, owners of a wide array of EV’s (electric vehicles), (including Nissan Leaf’s, Chevy Volt’s, Tesla Model S, BMW i3, Ford C-MAX Energi, and a solar vehicle), enthusiastically shared their views of the energy and environmental impact of the EV movement. If you are interested in finding out more about National Drive Electric Week, please click HERE.
It is also intriguing to find some one in Central Florida, Larry Wexler (above), with the idea and dream of one day seeing a Solar Car Race right here in our backyard of Central Florida! From my years in covering the Australian World Solar Challenge (if you’d like to see each of these solar cars from 2015, click HERE) I realize this is an ambitious project that will require many volunteers from many areas (electronics, computer programming, design, marketing, communications, etc.). But it is a terrific goal worth dreaming. So, let’s hope Mr. Wexler much success in this endeavor and let’s give him a hand!
The organizer of the event at Valencia College-West Campus, Lisa Macon (Dean of Division of Engineering, Computer Programming, and Technology at Valencia College), gathered many of our sustainability leaders in the Central Florida community for a very informative afternoon of:
“Introduction to Electric Cars“: The highlights of electric car ownership is presented by Lisa Macon, from different types of propulsion systems to the basic of charging electric vehicles.
“Life with An Electric Vehicle“: Thron Crowe is a local EV expert who uses his early model Nissan Leaf to drive for both Uber and Lyft. He’s quite familiar with Orlando’s charging station infrastructure while making money using his electric vehicle.
“Your EV- Planning and Practice“: Insights from Goering Castro of Cory Fairbanks Mazda are shared, from shopping for the right EV to fit one’s wallet and lifestyle, to integrating one’s EV into one’s daily life.
“Going Solar-Central Florida Solar Co-Op“: Derek Grozio brings us to Central Florida’s Solar Co-Op, which opens now until November 30, 2016. Learn about going solar from an EV owner’s perspective, review the process and benefits, seeing real numbers from a recent installation.
5. “Green Works Orlando-A Path To Urban Sustainability“: Chris Castro, Director of Sustainability for the City of Orlando (as part of the Mayor Buddy Dyer’s Sustainability Initiative, Green Works Orlando), presented topics in energy efficiency, green buildings, renewable energy projects, solid waste innovations, municipal fleet vehicles, and various other efforts Orlando is working toward to become one of the most sustainable cities in USA.
Hope this is helpful. Hope you are considering going Solar and going EV and taking measures in taking parts in Sustainable Living!
Did you know that last year Costa Rica was able to run on only clean renewable energy (from hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and biofuel) for 299 out of the 365 days in 2015? In order to get to the finish line during our marathon of transitioning toward a clean and renewable future, we need to address the issue brought up by Monica Araya of Costa Rica. It is important for us to also move onto electric transportation vehicles in order to achieve healthy and clean future for our future cities. It is important to break free from vehicles running on fossil fuel.
As the temperature arrives at its highest level since the recorded history of homo sapiens, as the suicide rate of Indian farmers and farmers from elsewhere continues to rise, and various other signs and symptoms associated with climate change picking up its respective pace, there is greater need to slow down the climate change, CO2 emission, and to speed up our transition not only to solar and renewable energy sources, but also to EV (electric vehicles). We all need to act fast! Have you started researching for your EV’s?
This is the message from Elon Musk: For the sake of future of earthlings and human kind, let the oil prices not be the most significant determining factor for future of EV industry. Let us not sacrifice the future of earth for the present. Let us not continue putting so much carbon into the atmosphere. Sooner or later we will all have to transition into an electric future. It is much better for the planet earth that we transition sooner than later into the solar electric future.
Gathered, written, & posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker
Any suggestions, concerns, questions will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com
Homepage: http://www.sunisthefuture.net
For more on solar energy topics, please feel free to check into links below:
After much careful consideration, I’ve decided to still post this piece on “Please Support These Solar Car Teams“. I want to clarify that these teams come from cultural backgrounds that do not complain much nor easily request for assistance from others. Therefore, none of the teams nor their team leaders had asked me to post this piece. It is based on other sources and my personal observations that had brought me to the conclusion. I would also like to remind every one that the goal of these challenges, whether it be World Solar Challenges, American Solar Challenges, Abu Dhabi Solar Challenges, SaSol Solar Challenges of South Africa, the purpose is to stimulate learning opportunities, exchange ideas to stimulate the growth of Solar Energy, and help our future generations to transition into solar energy quickly. In order to help our planet to transition into a cleaner, healthier, and more sustainable place to live in, we need to help all continents and countries to transition into EV (Electric Vehicle) and Solar Energy Age. So, I am taking this opportunity to shout out to electric vehicle companies such as Tesla Motors, Nissan, BYD, Ford, General Motors, etc. to ask for assistance for these teams in whichever way possible.
First: the two new solar cars from South Africa- Sirius X25 of North West University and Hulamin-iKlwa of University of Qwa Zulu Natal are the first and only two entrants from Africa. Both of these two teams are on very tight budget. They represent our hope for the solar future in the African continent, a place with much future growth potential.
WSC2015-Sirius X25 of North West University from South Africa (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)
WSC2015-Hulamin-iKlwa of University of Qwa Zulu Natal from South Africa (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)
Second: first entrant from China-Sun Shuttle of Beijing Institute of Technology entered for the second time. Contrary to what some other bloggers presumed, Sun Shuttle hardly had any support this time. It’s amazing that they actually made it to WSC2015! For the good of the planet, it is critical for the Chinese to transition into EV (electric vehicle) and Solar EV future, because China is inhabited by one fifth of the earth’s population. A cleaner China will translate into a cleaner planet earth!
WSC2015-Sun Shuttle from Beijing Institute of Technology of China, with Professor Zhang You-tong (with sunglasses) and students (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)
Third: Aurora of Aurora Vehicle Association has entered every World Solar Challenge since 1987 until this year (2015). Apparently Aurora’s loss of its garage workspace further led to dramatic decrease in membership of the organization. It would be a pity not to see Aurora of Aurora Vehicle Association, the most competitive entrant of our hosting country Australia, in the future. It would feel as though part of the tradition of World Solar Challenge has been lost.
WSC2015-Aurora of Aurora Solar Vehicle Association with its loyal member and Chairman Martin Brook (email: martin.brook@aurorasolarcar.com)(credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)
I hope all electric vehicle companies, solar enthusiasts, car enthusiasts, or simply any one who is interested in protecting our planet from pollution and accelerated climate change would reach out to these universities and organizations mentioned above, to show interest in helping these solar car teams.
More posts about World Solar Challenge 2015 will be coming.
As I’ve previously mentioned in an earlier post: If any solar car team needs to have a fund raising campaign, Sun Is The Future would be gladly help in letting the world know about your fund raising campaign. But it is crucial that individual solar car team would set up their own campaign and provide their own web site with appropriate contact information before contacting Sun Is The Future at sunisthefuture@gmail.com . Sun Is The Future will help to promote campaigns but would not be involved with the collection of donations.
You may also be interested in these posts from the past, below:
Above is the Bridgestone report on the first day of the race at World Solar Challenge 2015 at State Square right in front of the Parliament House of Darwin, Australia, starting at 8:30 a.m. sharp.
There has been a dramatic increase of the number of people with camera equipments, ready to record this exciting moment in human history, during the transition between ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) and ESV (Electric Solar Vehicle) engine. For those of you who have not read our previous post on “100% Electric Transportation and 100% Solar By 2030“, have a look at the pattern of history of change and appreciate why there is so much excitement for this event, World Solar Challenge. For we are all witnessing and in so doing, helping to accelerate the change. We cannot wait for the day when electric solar vehicles would be part of the mainstream!
P.S. Understanding such infectious excitement for the race, it would be greatly appreciated if some of the reporters or camera people would stay behind the barriers provided in the viewing area in order to avoid difficulty for the drivers or audiences in the future.
~have a bright and sunny day~
Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker
Any comments and suggestions are welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com
Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:
Capturing The Sun is also available at www.sunisthefuture.com (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)
(Please click on red links & note magenta)
This is a presentation titled “Clean Disruption: 100% Electric Transportation and 100% Solar Energy By 2030“, presented to AltCars Expo and Conference in Santa Monica, CA, by Tony Seba, on Sep. 19, 2014. In his matter of fact manner, Mr. Seba pointed out the historical pattern of disruptions from the past as a way to help us to envision our future of Solar-Electric-Self Driving Vehicles, below:
Mr. Seba points out the 5 reasons why EV (electric vehicle) is “disruptive”:
Electric Motor is 5x+ more energy efficient than the internal combustion engine (ICE).
EV energy costs are 10x cheaper than ICE vehicle.
EV maintenance costs are 5-10x cheaper than ICE vehicle.
Wireless charging
Electric Motor is far more powerful than ICE.
The question to ask now is: how long will the transition take from ICE to EV? It is comforting to know that since 2010, the battery costs have been dropping at ~16%/year as a result of 3 multi-trillion dollar industries (IT/Electronics, Automotive, and Energy) all interested in investing in battery technology. The simple fact that Tesla’s $5 Billion Battery GigaFactory is being built will double world battery production and will bring down the battery pack costs by >30%, leading to the eventual cost of an average EV at US$31,000 by 2020 and low-end EV at US$21,000 by 2022. Therefore, mass migration from ICE (gasoline) to electric vehicles is anticipated to occur around 2017-2018 and 100% of mainstream cars will be electric by 2030.
Another functionality of the EV is its eventual autonomous feature. Along with this feature, there will be improved highway capacity and higher efficiency. This will translate to a shrinking auto industry and shrinking need of parking spaces or need of car ownerships. Solar industry has been growing exponentially 43%/year since 2000. If such growth rate continues, 100% of the energy in the world will be solar by 2030. We will be facing a new world, a cleaner, healthier, and more efficient world.
~have a bright and sunny day~
Gathered, written, photographed, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker
Any comments and suggestions are welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com
Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:
Before continuing on the next part of our series on solar vehicles, I just want to quickly share an article/paper, responding to a question asked by a professor at the UCSB Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Professor Roland Geyer‘s,
“The energy source for biofuels is the sun, through photosynthesis. The energy source for solar power is also the sun. Which is better?”
Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Jan 15;47(2):1170-6. doi: 10.1021/es302959h. Epub 2013 Jan 3.
Spatially-Explicit Life Cycle Assessment of Sun-to-Wheels Transportation Pathways in the U.S.
Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California , Santa Barbara, California 93106-5131, United States.
Abstract
Growth in biofuel production, which is meant to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fossil energy demand, is increasingly seen as a threat to food supply and natural habitats. Using photovoltaics (PV) to directly convert solar radiation into electricity for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is an alternative to photosynthesis, which suffers from a very low energy conversion efficiency. Assessments need to be spatially explicit, since solar insolation and crop yields vary widely between locations. This paper therefore compares direct land use, life cycle GHG emissions and fossil fuel requirements of five different sun-to-wheels conversion pathways for every county in the contiguous U.S.: Ethanol from corn or switchgrass for internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), electricity from corn or switchgrass for BEVs, and PV electricity for BEVs. Even the most land-use efficient biomass-based pathway (i.e., switchgrass bioelectricity in U.S. counties with hypothetical crop yields of over 24 tonnes/ha) requires 29 times more land than the PV-based alternative in the same locations. PV BEV systems also have the lowest life cycle GHG emissions throughout the U.S. and the lowest fossil fuel inputs, except for locations with hypothetical switchgrass yields of 16 or more tonnes/ha. Including indirect land use effects further strengthens the case for PV.
The paper shows that PV cells are far more efficient than biofuels at powering a vehicle by energy from the sun.
“What it says to me is that by continuing to throw money into biofuels, we’re barking up the wrong tree. That’s because of a fundamental constraint, which is the relative inefficiency of photosynthesis. And we can’t say that right now biofuels aren’t so great but they’ll be better in five years. That fundamental problem for biofuels will not go away, while solar EVs will just continue to get more efficient and cheaper. If they’re already looking better than biofuels, in five years the gap will be even greater. A search for a silver bullet is under way through synthetic photosynthesis, but using genetic engineering to improve the efficiency of photosynthesis is a pipe dream. If there is a silver bullet in energy, I think it’s solar power.”
At this moment, please allow me to reshare the video below, the SolarWorld GT Team of Bochum (Germany) University of Applied Sciences, is the first solar-powered vehicle that has circumnavigated the world, started the trip in 2012 from Australia, after the World Solar Challenge:
~have a bright and sunny day~
Gathered and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker
Any of your comments/suggestions/questions will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com
