Posts Tagged ‘Stanford University’

26 June

Tony Seba Guiding Us Through Our Transition Into Clean Disruptions

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

(Please click on red links & note magenta)

Today, I’d like to introduce you to Tony Seba, the Stanford Professor with 20+ years of solid operating experience in fast growing clean tech companies. He was the vice president, corporate development at “Utility Scale Solar, Inc.” where he helped the company grow from the garage-stage through growth strategy, fundraising, business development with plant developers and partners. He was the founder and CEO of PrintNation.com (a B2B ecommerce site which he established as the undisputed leader in its market segment, winning much top industry awards as the Upside Hot 100 and the Forbes.com B2B ‘Best of the Web.’ Seba led two venture capital rounds raising more than $31 million in funding from well-known venture funds, hired a complete management team, 100+ employees, and managed the development of strategic partnerships with some of the world’s top companies.

Tony Seba demonstrates “Why do smart people at smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate or lead market disruptions?” He helps us to understand why so-called experts tend not to be able to correctly make correct forecast about technological disruption. In these cases, the Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:

  • Technology Cost Curves: exponential growth, with example of lithium ion battery storage technology and solar PV costs
  • Technology Convergence: disruption caused by the convergence of several technologies, enabling functionalities that may not have existed in the past (2007 for smartphone.
  • Exponential Market Adoption S-Curve: upon reaching the tipping point, technological disruption would grow exponentially and continue to grow at a steeper rate (growing even more quickly). This phenomenon was/is observed in technologies such as colored tv, smartphones, tablet, and will also be true in solar and EV.
  • Business Model Innovation: examples such as Uber (started in 2009 and now has more bookings than whole taxi industry in USA), Didi, Lyft, Ola, AirBnb…

Five technologies (below), plus business model innovation  will be disrupting, within the coming decade, all of the energy and transportation system as we know it for purely economic reasons. It will be the: Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:

  • Batteries: Li-on battery costs dropping exponentially (cost dropped 14% per year between 1995 – 2010, 16% per year between 2010 – 2014, due to other industries’ (IT, Electronics, Automotive, and Energy) investment). With more investments continue to come from BYD, Foxconn, Samsung SDI, Dyson, and 12+ megafactories coming online by 2020, cost curve, cost will continues to drop about 20%  after 2014. Furthermore, the grid works like a just-in-time supply chain without inventory. This inefficient use of assets designed for peak is waiting to be disrupted. NextEra Energy CEO Jim Robo   commented, “Post 2020 there may never be another peaker built in the U.S.” In Feb. 2017, Southern California Edison contracted the system to meet PEAK Demand  needs using battery technology following its Alyson Canyon natural gas leaks. Tesla’s 80 MWh system was built in 88 days that no natural gas peaker could have competed.  There are also business model innovation that treats storage as a service, reducing utility bills by 10%. By 2020, it will cost American families about $1.2 per day for a full day of electricity storage. People will do this because it will save people money, purely for economics.
  • Electric Vehicles (EV’s): Consumer reports gave Tesla Model S an evaluation of 103 out of possible 100 for Car of the Year in 2013. Electric Vehicle (EV) is 5x more energy efficient than Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). It is also cheaper to transmit/distribute electrons than atoms, therefore EVs are 10x cheaper to charge/fuel than ICE vehicles. EVs are also cheaper to maintain (ICE vehicles have 2000+ moving parts whereas EVs have 18-20 moving parts). EVs lifetime is about 2.5x greater than ICE vehicles. In 2017, GM’s Chevy Bolt EV has 200-mile range and costs $37,500 whereas Tesla Model 3 has 215-mile range and costs $35,000. By 2025, every new vehicles will be of EV.
  • Autonomous Vehicles: the biggest disrupter. The World’s first self-driving taxi debuted in Singapore in 2016. Uber’s self-driving fleet arrived in Pittsburgh in August of 2016. 33 corporations are investing billions  and working on autonomous vehicles. Tesla also announced that by the end of 2017, all Tesla vehicles can go from CA to NY without needing human controls (level 3).  Elon Musk also said that Tesla will be able to  transition to level 5 (fully self-driving, no pedals nor steering wheel) in 2019. Two technologies making autonomous vehicles possible: 1. LIDAR (laser+radar) price dropped from about $70,000 in 2012 to $1,000 in 2014, and $250 in 2016, and soon to be $90. 2. Super computing power priced at $46 million in 2000, $59 in 2016. These technologies are improving at 1,000x in the next 8 years.  Open source is also responsible much of the growth in the future.
  • Ride-Hailing:Transportation As A Service” initiated from a think tank founded by Tony Seba, a disruption of transportation. Reason behind this concept: most American family spend about $10,000 to own and use a car per year that is only used about 4% of the time. Disruption: 1. electric vehicles 2. self-driving 3. ride-hailing. These are convergence of multiple business and technology models. The day the regulatory agency approves the autonomous vehicle is the day when the cost of per mile transport will be 10x cheaper for transport as a service than it is to own a car for consumers. Consumers will be giving up car ownership and henceforth the collapse of ownership of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and IO (individual ownership) of vehicles. Therefore there will be 80% fewer cars on the road, parking lots, and insurance for vehicles. Annual demand for new vehicles will also decrease by 70% and demand for oil will also decrease by 2021 (around the time when oil costs about $25 per barrel).
  • Solar: example: Denmark’s Copenhagen International  School generating 50% of its power need from solar (even the side of the building is part of this solar power plant). Solar PV cost dropped from $100./W in 1970’s to $0.33/W now. This is about 303x improvement. Globally, solar installations have doubled every 2 years since 2000. At the time of Tony Seba’s presentation, solar represented 1.5% of the power generation (it is now about 2%). If we use the 1.5% to calculate, at the doubling rate every 2 years (1.5%, 3%, 6%, 12%, 24%, 48%, 96%), it would only take 6-7 doublings (or 12-14 years) to reach 100% of the world’s energy generation (around 2030). Since 1970’s, the price or cost all conventional resource-based energy sources (such as oil, natural gas, or coal) have gone up by 6x-16x while solar has gone down by 303x. The cost of solar will continue to drop. According to Deutsche Bank, solar will be below Grid Parity for 80% of the global market by the end of 2017, meaning 80% of the solar world market will be at or below utility rate. According to PWC, 69% of corporations (Apple, Facebook, etc.) are actively pursuing solar purchase because it makes economic sense to go solar. Solar growth rate will accelerate. By 2020, it is expected that the cost of rooftop solar will cost less than the cost of transmission, without any subsidy for solar. Central generation will be obsolete. There will be no other form of energy generation that will be cheaper than “solar+storage”. By 2020, it is expected that the solar growth rate will really take off. Utility scale solar will drop below 3 cents per kWh (nothing will be able to compete with solar at 3 cents per kWh). Solar at 5.8 cents per kWh is competitive with oil at $10 per barrel and gas at $5 per MMBtu. In 2016, solar costed: in Chile was at 2.91 cents per kWh (unsubsidized) & Dubai at 2.99 cents per kWh. In 2016 Dubai PPA at 2.42 cents per kWh (unsubsidized). Tucson Electric has just announced that Solar+Storage PPA at 4.5 cents per kWh. It no longer makes sense to build peaker plants when solar generation costs so much less. Distributed solar, due to economics, will make sense and will become the rule. In Australia, 25% of the homes are already using solar (it costs 12  cents for transmission while solar cost 7 cents to generate in Australia)

Economics is already here: Unsubsidized Solar & Autonomous EVs are No Longer the Transition but Disruption For Our Energy & Transportatioin! Tipping point will be around 2020.

Besides pure economics, think of the: decrease in pollution, slowing in climate change, decrease in international conflicts, and increase in local job opportunities as a result of these disruptions! Bravo For Clean Disruptions!

~have a bright and sunny day~

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker
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22 October

Winning Solar Cars of World Solar Challenge 2015 On Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

(Please click on red and note magenta)

It’s a beautiful sunny day (Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015) for all the Solar Cars to head toward Adelaide, Australia. While the red carpet is being set up for these winners,

Red Carpet awaits for all the Solar Cars of World Solar Challenge 2015 (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)

Red Carpet awaits for all the Solar Cars of World Solar Challenge 2015 (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)

the solar energy users/drivers, clouds start to disperse to allow the sun shine through. The first solar car that arrived is Nuna8 of Nuon Solar Team (Team #3 from Netherlands) and the second is the Red One of Solar Team Twente (Team #21 from Netherlands). Followed by Tokai Challenger of Tokai University (Team #10 from Japan) in the third, Aurum of University of Michigan Solar Car Team (Team #2 from USA) in the fourth, Punch One of Punch Powertrain Solar Team (Team #8 from Belgium) in the fifth, Arctan of Stanford Solar Car Project  (Team #16 from USA) in the sixth, and MegaLux of GAMF Hungary (Team #23 from Hungary). Video below is a record of all of these winning solar cars (each solar car is allotted 2 minutes of presentation) that arrived at Victoria Square in Adelaide, Australia, on Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015:


After having covered the World Solar Challenge for the third time/sixth year, I have to declare that the Dutch (from Netherlands) really know how to party and race solar cars! Not only are the first two places being occupied by the Dutch, Nuon Solar Team is coming in first this year and last time (2013).Their enthusiasm is infectious. Their energy level is uplifting. For centuries, the Dutch have had to deal with much of their endowed geographic position below the sea level. Such rigorous trials and tribulations may have contributed to their engineering prowess reflected in their design for solar cars. So goes the saying, “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade.” This year one person, Professor Wubbo Ockels, from the Nuon Solar Team, is conspicuously missing. After talking to the team members, I found out that Professor Ockels passed away in 2014. Professor Ockels, we hope that you are enjoying World Solar Challenge 2015 from up there, cheering and laughing with all of us. In his memory, I’d like to invite you all to view this post and visit www.happyenergy.com .

Tokai University and University of Michigan have been perennial top finishers for many years. Stanford University’s Stanford Solar Car Project,  Punch Powertrain Solar Team, and GAMF Hungary have all made great strides. These teams have given much hope for all of those who participate in World Solar Challenge. As the world of solar energy technology continues to evolve, much remains to be seen for future races. For example,  perovskite-based solar technology may bring huge gains to solar cells in the future. If interested, please refer to these  links below for more on perovskite-based solar technology:

  1. Dr. Christopher Case (of Oxford PV) Discusses Game-Changing Future Transformer of Solar Power Generation-Perovskite Based Solar Cell Technology
  2. Dr. Henry Snaith Believes That We May Have Entirely Clean Energy In Five Years
  3. Perovskite Solar Cell Technology of Oxford PV-the Potential Gamer Changer

~have a bright and sunny day~

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker

Any comments and suggestions are welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

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31 May

Let’s Show Our Support For Solar Plane-Solar Impulse

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

I’d like to share a correspondence from Solar Impulse with you all. Let’s show Bertrand and Andre that we are fully behind them and wish them success in flying Across America and in preparing to complete the construction of HB-SIB for 2015 Around The World Flight!


(Please click on red links below)

Dear Susan Sun,

We’re proud to announce that Solar Impulse has arrived in Dallas, Texas carrying the names of over 35,000 Clean Generation movement members! We’re especially excited by the number of young people we’re engaging – we know they are the key to the long-term success of our Clean Generation movement.
As we travel across the United States, we make sure to meet with students of all ages. Traveling to campuses and schools to make presentations and interact with students is a big part of how we spend our time on the ground. So far on our USA mission, we’ve already met with students from many schools, including Sunnyvale Fairwood Elementary School, San Mateo Union High School, and Stanford University.
Our sponsors help defray the costs of building and operating the plane itself, but our educational programs depend entirely on funding from people like you.
Today, we’re asking you to help support our educational efforts – and with a donation of $50 or more, we’ll also send you our exclusive 2013 Across America flight patch. This is the very same patch we wear on our flight jackets, and this is your chance to get one:
When we open the plane for public viewing at each of our stops, the questions students ask are a real highlight – often, they are better than we hear from adults.  And when a student sees the plane for the first time, the look on his or her face is priceless.
For young people, our plane is living proof that a clean technology future is more than just a dream – and our mission isn’t accomplished unless we can bring this inspiration to thousands of students around the world.
We keep our costs low — a donation of $50 will pay for 2 students to learn about our plane and clean technology.  Every little bit helps — just think of the satisfaction you’ll get knowing you helped support our educational programs.
We’re so happy to have your support. Next stop: St. Louis! As always, we’ll keep in touch about the exact flight schedule and opportunities for public viewing.
Sincerely,
Bertrand Piccard and André Borschberg


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14 August

Solar Decathlon (3)-Florida International University’s PerFORMDanceHouse of 2011

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If you are in favor of renewable,  clean, or solar energy, please sign this petition for FIT/CLEAN Program, accessible at http://sunisthefuture.net/?page_id=1065 Thank you very much. We are at a critical juncture in human history when individual effort and participation in the transition into renewable energy age is desperately needed!  Your signature will be very meaningful in helping all earthlings!  For a summary of why we need to switch to power the earth with Wind-Water-Sunlight quickly, reasons are explained by Stanford Professor Mark Z. Jacobson at http://sunisthefuture.net/?m=20110731 There are more than sixteen episodes of discussions on FIT (Feed-In-Tariff/CLEAN Program) available at  http://sunisthefuture.net Please feel free to read/listen to them (type in feed-in-tariff in the search box at right).

Dear Readers,

An excellent question from some of you and here is what I found out about how Solar Decathlon is judged, based on 10 contests, each is worth 100 points, they are: Architecture, Market Appeal, Engineering, Communications, Affordability, Comfort Zone, Hot Water, Appliances, Home Entertainment, and Energy Balance.

As I’ve previously promised you, in this episode, I will be taking you through a tour of one of the teams from my home state of Florida, the PerFORMDance House of Florida International University.  PerFORMDance House is a design of harmonious coexistence   between its users and nature by generating its energy use completely from the sun while addressing  the need of its South Florida climate of high humidity, high temperature, and high hurricane risk. Some of its innovative strategies in producing electricity to cool/heat interior space are: ductless heating/cooling system, solar thermotube sensitive moderate system, highly efficient lighting and appliance system.  Its high LEED may potentially propel the house for a LEED platinum rating. Other interior features also include: insulated folding glass doors and screens protecting users from humidity and insects while allowing natural light and air into the space;retractable louvre panels shading the perimeter of the house, guarding against direct sunlight and reducing the cooling cost;cabinets made from long lasting American hardwood  for its low carbon footprint;floor made from recycled VOC free wood with zero formaldehyde glues. The interior of the PerFORMDance House is designed around a central core that maximizes energy efficiency, optimizes free space, allows variation of use, provides maximum accessibility and ample storage space for its users.  The exterior contains a spacious bamboo deck, a water feature for its gray water biofiltration, planters filled with many species of low maintenance South Florida plants, and an edible garden that provides healthy diet and lower grocery bills. One can see that the design of PerFORMDance House is: functional, accessible, adaptable, and sustainable.  How about a tour of the PerFORMDance House now–>the clip of Florida International University’s PerFORMDance House of Solar Decathlon 2011 awaits you——>

written and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker, sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Homepage:  http://sunisthefuture.net http://sunisthefuture.com http://sunisthefuture.org
Any comments and suggestions are welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

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31 July

Why Should We Power The World With Wind-Water-Sunlight Quickly

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If you are in favor of renewable/CLEAN energy, please sign the petition page showing support for FIT/CLEAN Program at http://sunisthefuture.net/?page_id=1065 Thank you.

It is an exciting time to be alive.  We earthlings may have many problems to deal with, but we are also equipped with many tools, terrific minds, and fantastic ways of communications.  My thirst for solutions for earth’s energy problem combined with my online teaching jobs permitted me to travel to various places from time to time to search for answer…to seek lessons learned and wisdom gathered…. Yes, I’ve attended many lectures by many scholars who have studied the energy issue.

Today, I want to share with you a talk by Mark Z. Jacobson, Director of the Atmosphere/Energy Program and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. Professor Jacobson started the talk by explaining what the problem we earthlings are facing today and why is there such an urgency in needing to deal with it quickly:

  • temperatures are rising quickly
  • Arctic sea ice area is decreasing quickly
  • air pollution mortality is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and higher temperature contributes to deaths
  • higher population and growing energy demand will lead to worsening air pollution and climate problems over time

This part of the talk helped me to realize that black carbon (main component of the soot particles) is also a very important factor for causing global warming, in addition to CO2 emission.  Annual premature earthlings’ deaths due to particulates is about 2.5-3 million (in U.S. that is translated into 50,000-100,000 and in Europe, 300,000-350,000 annual premature deaths due to air pollution).

As any good engineer/scholar would approach a problem, Professor Jacobson did not just  alarm us with problems but also evaluated possible solutions both with and without cost considerations.  From reviewing and ranking major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution mortality, and energy security, his talk also considered various impacts of the proposed solutions such as water supply, land use, resource availability, reliability, wildlife, and  risk of cancer and nuclear proliferation.  Some data I was not aware of in the past was presented, such as the dramatic increase of organic gases (formaldehyde, 200% and  acetaldehyde, 4500%) and increased ozone generated from using ethanol.  In the final analysis, with consideration of materials, transmission infrastructure, costs, and politics, Professor Jacobson concludes that the best way to power the world is with Wind, Water, and Solar (WWS) technologies.

 


 

By 2030, the cost of using fossil fuel (13.5c/kWh) will be higher than using WWS (8-13 c/kWh) technologies.  Using WWS technologies will also eliminate 2.5-3 million air pollution premature deaths/year and global warming and provides energy stability.  Furthermore, converting to WWS and electricity/H2 will reduce global power demand by 30%.  The greatest concern regarding use of WWS is its variability;this is also addressed by Jacobson’s study by: ( 1.) interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS;(2.) bundling WWS and using hydro to fill in gaps;(3.) demand-response (provide incentive to discourage use during peak/high demand period);(4.) oversizing peak capacity and producing hydrogen with excess for industry, vehicles;(5.)on-site storage;(6.)better forecasting.

 

 

The study concludes that the best way to power planet earth in the future is with Wind, Water, and Solar (WWS) technologies.  It is feasible both technically and economically.  Its potential barriers are up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, and politics.

Relevant papers can be found at http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html.


Dear Readers, this is exactly why I have written the series on Feed-In-Tariff, trying to urge all of our local and federal governments (not just the Floridians or residents of USA, but residents of planet earth) to give all of us the  incentive to participate  in our move toward the Renewable WWS age.  We, as individual home or business owners, may not be spending multiple millions of dollars for lobbying, but we are just as concerned with the future of energy use and welfare of our planet earth as any large utility companies.  We earthlings are all connected. The particulate matters from China or India or radiation material from Fukushima will impact all of us earthlings.  So as  individual earthlings, let’s start by calling attention and action for our immediate communities.  I, here in Florida, will try my very best in asking my community and local government to consider Feed-In-Tariff (discussions available by going to the search box at right and type in “feed in tariff”). Feed-In-Tariff, now rebranded as CLEAN program, may be utilized by individual home owners, small businesses, organizations such as schools, Y’s, hospitals, libraries, local McDonald’s, WalMart, police stations, and large power/utility companies/plant (refer to the piece I wrote on July 13, 2011, Answer For The Future Is In Hybrid Marriage-Solar And Fossil Fuel at http://sunisthefuture.net) alike. I hope you, readers from 85 countries (esp. for those who resides in countries not yet with Feed-In-Tariff), will do the same.  I will try to find a way to set up a petition page within few days.  Please feel free to email me at sunisthefuture@gmail.com if you have any suggestions.  Any of your input will be welcomed.

Posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker, sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Homepage:  http://sunisthefuture.net http://sunisthefuture.com http://sunisthefuture.org

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BIO  for Mark Z. Jacobson (taken from Stanford University web site for energy seminar: http://energyseminar.stanford.edu/node/357)

Professor/Director Jacobson currently sits on the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Federal Advisory Committee (ERAC) to the U.S. Secretary of Energy.  He received a B.S. in Civil Engineering with distinction, an A.B. in Economics with distinction, and an M.S. in Environmental Engineering from Stanford University, in 1988, an M.S. in Atmospheric Sciences in 1991 and a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences in 1994 from UCLA and has been on the faculty at Stanford since 1994.  His work relates to the development and application of numerical models to understand better the effects of energy systems and vehicles on climate and air pollution and the analysis of renewable energy resources. He has published two textbooks and 110 peer-reviewed scientific journal articles. His 2000 finding that black carbon, the main component of soot particles, may be the second-leading cause of global warming after carbon dioxide provided the original scientific basis for five recent U.S. proposed laws on black carbon. He received the 2005 American Meteorological Society Henry G. Houghton Award for “significant contributions to modeling aerosol chemistry and to understanding the role of soot and other carbon particles on climate.” In 2005, his group developed the first wind map of the world from data at the height of modern turbines. He recently co-authored a cover article in Scientific American with Dr. Mark DeLucchi of U.C. Davis and two more detailed analyses in Energy Policy on how to power the world with renewable energy.

Posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker, sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Homepage:  http://sunisthefuture.net http://sunisthefuture.com http://sunisthefuture.org
Any comments and suggestions are welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

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