Posts Tagged ‘technologies’

26 June

Tony Seba Guiding Us Through Our Transition Into Clean Disruptions

Share

Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

(Please click on red links & note magenta)

Today, I’d like to introduce you to Tony Seba, the Stanford Professor with 20+ years of solid operating experience in fast growing clean tech companies. He was the vice president, corporate development at “Utility Scale Solar, Inc.” where he helped the company grow from the garage-stage through growth strategy, fundraising, business development with plant developers and partners. He was the founder and CEO of PrintNation.com (a B2B ecommerce site which he established as the undisputed leader in its market segment, winning much top industry awards as the Upside Hot 100 and the Forbes.com B2B ‘Best of the Web.’ Seba led two venture capital rounds raising more than $31 million in funding from well-known venture funds, hired a complete management team, 100+ employees, and managed the development of strategic partnerships with some of the world’s top companies.

Tony Seba demonstrates “Why do smart people at smart organizations consistently fail to anticipate or lead market disruptions?” He helps us to understand why so-called experts tend not to be able to correctly make correct forecast about technological disruption. In these cases, the Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:

  • Technology Cost Curves: exponential growth, with example of lithium ion battery storage technology and solar PV costs
  • Technology Convergence: disruption caused by the convergence of several technologies, enabling functionalities that may not have existed in the past (2007 for smartphone.
  • Exponential Market Adoption S-Curve: upon reaching the tipping point, technological disruption would grow exponentially and continue to grow at a steeper rate (growing even more quickly). This phenomenon was/is observed in technologies such as colored tv, smartphones, tablet, and will also be true in solar and EV.
  • Business Model Innovation: examples such as Uber (started in 2009 and now has more bookings than whole taxi industry in USA), Didi, Lyft, Ola, AirBnb…

Five technologies (below), plus business model innovation  will be disrupting, within the coming decade, all of the energy and transportation system as we know it for purely economic reasons. It will be the: Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:

  • Batteries: Li-on battery costs dropping exponentially (cost dropped 14% per year between 1995 – 2010, 16% per year between 2010 – 2014, due to other industries’ (IT, Electronics, Automotive, and Energy) investment). With more investments continue to come from BYD, Foxconn, Samsung SDI, Dyson, and 12+ megafactories coming online by 2020, cost curve, cost will continues to drop about 20%  after 2014. Furthermore, the grid works like a just-in-time supply chain without inventory. This inefficient use of assets designed for peak is waiting to be disrupted. NextEra Energy CEO Jim Robo   commented, “Post 2020 there may never be another peaker built in the U.S.” In Feb. 2017, Southern California Edison contracted the system to meet PEAK Demand  needs using battery technology following its Alyson Canyon natural gas leaks. Tesla’s 80 MWh system was built in 88 days that no natural gas peaker could have competed.  There are also business model innovation that treats storage as a service, reducing utility bills by 10%. By 2020, it will cost American families about $1.2 per day for a full day of electricity storage. People will do this because it will save people money, purely for economics.
  • Electric Vehicles (EV’s): Consumer reports gave Tesla Model S an evaluation of 103 out of possible 100 for Car of the Year in 2013. Electric Vehicle (EV) is 5x more energy efficient than Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). It is also cheaper to transmit/distribute electrons than atoms, therefore EVs are 10x cheaper to charge/fuel than ICE vehicles. EVs are also cheaper to maintain (ICE vehicles have 2000+ moving parts whereas EVs have 18-20 moving parts). EVs lifetime is about 2.5x greater than ICE vehicles. In 2017, GM’s Chevy Bolt EV has 200-mile range and costs $37,500 whereas Tesla Model 3 has 215-mile range and costs $35,000. By 2025, every new vehicles will be of EV.
  • Autonomous Vehicles: the biggest disrupter. The World’s first self-driving taxi debuted in Singapore in 2016. Uber’s self-driving fleet arrived in Pittsburgh in August of 2016. 33 corporations are investing billions  and working on autonomous vehicles. Tesla also announced that by the end of 2017, all Tesla vehicles can go from CA to NY without needing human controls (level 3).  Elon Musk also said that Tesla will be able to  transition to level 5 (fully self-driving, no pedals nor steering wheel) in 2019. Two technologies making autonomous vehicles possible: 1. LIDAR (laser+radar) price dropped from about $70,000 in 2012 to $1,000 in 2014, and $250 in 2016, and soon to be $90. 2. Super computing power priced at $46 million in 2000, $59 in 2016. These technologies are improving at 1,000x in the next 8 years.  Open source is also responsible much of the growth in the future.
  • Ride-Hailing:Transportation As A Service” initiated from a think tank founded by Tony Seba, a disruption of transportation. Reason behind this concept: most American family spend about $10,000 to own and use a car per year that is only used about 4% of the time. Disruption: 1. electric vehicles 2. self-driving 3. ride-hailing. These are convergence of multiple business and technology models. The day the regulatory agency approves the autonomous vehicle is the day when the cost of per mile transport will be 10x cheaper for transport as a service than it is to own a car for consumers. Consumers will be giving up car ownership and henceforth the collapse of ownership of ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles and IO (individual ownership) of vehicles. Therefore there will be 80% fewer cars on the road, parking lots, and insurance for vehicles. Annual demand for new vehicles will also decrease by 70% and demand for oil will also decrease by 2021 (around the time when oil costs about $25 per barrel).
  • Solar: example: Denmark’s Copenhagen International  School generating 50% of its power need from solar (even the side of the building is part of this solar power plant). Solar PV cost dropped from $100./W in 1970’s to $0.33/W now. This is about 303x improvement. Globally, solar installations have doubled every 2 years since 2000. At the time of Tony Seba’s presentation, solar represented 1.5% of the power generation (it is now about 2%). If we use the 1.5% to calculate, at the doubling rate every 2 years (1.5%, 3%, 6%, 12%, 24%, 48%, 96%), it would only take 6-7 doublings (or 12-14 years) to reach 100% of the world’s energy generation (around 2030). Since 1970’s, the price or cost all conventional resource-based energy sources (such as oil, natural gas, or coal) have gone up by 6x-16x while solar has gone down by 303x. The cost of solar will continue to drop. According to Deutsche Bank, solar will be below Grid Parity for 80% of the global market by the end of 2017, meaning 80% of the solar world market will be at or below utility rate. According to PWC, 69% of corporations (Apple, Facebook, etc.) are actively pursuing solar purchase because it makes economic sense to go solar. Solar growth rate will accelerate. By 2020, it is expected that the cost of rooftop solar will cost less than the cost of transmission, without any subsidy for solar. Central generation will be obsolete. There will be no other form of energy generation that will be cheaper than “solar+storage”. By 2020, it is expected that the solar growth rate will really take off. Utility scale solar will drop below 3 cents per kWh (nothing will be able to compete with solar at 3 cents per kWh). Solar at 5.8 cents per kWh is competitive with oil at $10 per barrel and gas at $5 per MMBtu. In 2016, solar costed: in Chile was at 2.91 cents per kWh (unsubsidized) & Dubai at 2.99 cents per kWh. In 2016 Dubai PPA at 2.42 cents per kWh (unsubsidized). Tucson Electric has just announced that Solar+Storage PPA at 4.5 cents per kWh. It no longer makes sense to build peaker plants when solar generation costs so much less. Distributed solar, due to economics, will make sense and will become the rule. In Australia, 25% of the homes are already using solar (it costs 12  cents for transmission while solar cost 7 cents to generate in Australia)

Economics is already here: Unsubsidized Solar & Autonomous EVs are No Longer the Transition but Disruption For Our Energy & Transportatioin! Tipping point will be around 2020.

Besides pure economics, think of the: decrease in pollution, slowing in climate change, decrease in international conflicts, and increase in local job opportunities as a result of these disruptions! Bravo For Clean Disruptions!

~have a bright and sunny day~

Any comments, suggestions, concerns regarding this post will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker
Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.cafepress.com/sunisthefuture

Google+

Windermere Sun website Header small

 

Share
11 June

May There Be Plenty of Sunshine For Solar Impulse 2 To Cross The Pacific Ocean

Share

Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

Solar Impulse 2 (longest solo flight between Japan and Hawaii) (credit: Solar Iimpulse)

Solar Impulse 2 will be taking the longest solo flight of all time, over the Pacific Ocean, between Nagoya, Japan and Hawaii, this weekend (credit: Solar Impulse)

(Please click on red links & note magenta)

Time to update our report for Solar Impulse 2, the Solar Powered Plane: it will continue its historic around-the-world flight (that began back in March 9, 2015, from Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates) this weekend with the non-stop, four- or five-day flight over the Pacific Ocean between Japan and Hawaii.  This segment of the journey will be the world’s longest solar-powered flight and the longest solo-airplane flight of all time. It will be “the moment of truth” for the Solar Impulse Team on this mission, as pilot Andre Borschberg called it. Please view the videos below, for the motivation behind the construction and flight of Solar Impulse 2 and portions of its flight on this around-the-world mission, below:

 

 

 

 

The cofounders of Solar Impulse and Solar Impulse 2, Bertrand Piccard and Andre Borschberg, aim to raise awareness of climate change and the importance of using renewable/solar/clean energy.

“The most important thing isn’t to make world records. It is to show what we can do with clean technologies. Clean technologies can reduce CO2 emissions while stimulate economic growth.” Piccard said. “Many of these energy efficient solutions are starting to be commercialized, as they are economically attractive and have real potential to considerably reduce worldwide energy consumption.” Piccard wants to let people know that the technology in the Solar Impulse could be used in cars, houses, and other places. He wants to bring solutions rather than just talk about problems. It is Bertrand Piccard’s life mission to demonstrate to the world that “we can do incredible things with clean and solar technologies.”

Weather permitting, we shall soon see Solar Impulse 2 crossing the Pacific,  from Nagoya, Japan, to Hawaii, on this longest solo flight of all time. Despite difficult weather condition during its seventh leg from Nanjing, China to Honolulu, Hawaii, or its wing damage upon arrival in Japan, Piccard and Borschberg have overcome much obstacles and have been patient and cautious in waiting for a period of four days of good weather condition to take this longest solar powered flight coming up this weekend.

Solar Impulse 2 Flight Bt. Nagoya, Japan and Hawaii (Crossing Pacific Ocean) source: USA Today research Frank Pompa, USA Today

Solar Impulse 2 Flight Bt. Nagoya, Japan and Hawaii (Crossing Pacific Ocean) source: USA Today research Frank Pompa, USA Today

Let us wish these two visionaries, Piccard and Borschberg, and their Solar Impulse Team and family, plenty of sunshine during this upcoming journey crossing the Pacific. The whole planet will be rooting for you!
~have a bright and sunny day~

Gathered, written, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker

Any comments and suggestions are welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

HTML adl

Google+

Share
4 February

Savings Through Smart Grid Technologies of Green Charge Networks

Share

Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers, (Please click on red links below)

Great News, one of our viewers/visitors has a fantastic piece of news to share about his company, press release below:

A 1934 series $1,000 United States banknote featuring the portrait of Grover Cleveland, now probably worth over $5,000 (credit: public domain bank notes + "savings"=>sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)

Businesses and Municipalities Look to Save Money Through Smart Grid Technologies

Silicon Valley Startup Green Charge Networks Signs 1 MW of Intelligent Energy Storage

SANTA CLARA, Calif.  (Feb. 4, 2014) – Green Charge Networks, a leader in intelligent energy storage, has signed agreements for 1 MW of energy storage with retail chain customers and city municipalities that are seeking to reduce their electricity bills through smart grid technologies. Many businesses in California and New York City pay 40% or more of their monthly electric bill in “demand charges” based on their peak electricity use. Green Charge Network’s (GCN) proven GreenStationTM  technology uses utility and weather data to predict peak use and store energy accordingly. This reduces these demand charges and saves businesses thousands of dollars7-Eleven stores have been using GCN’s GreenStationTM successfully for the past two years. One 7-Eleven GreenStationTM  in New York endured Hurricane Sandy and then went on to save the business 56% on their electricity bills during the 2013 summer heat wave. Green Charge Networks is adding to its list of customers including 7-Eleven, Walgreens, office buildings, community colleges, and municipalities, adding up to 1 MW as listed on the DOE’s Global Energy Storage Database.“It is a big accomplishment to our company to help businesses and local governments use power more efficiently,” said Vic Shao, CEO at Green Charge Networks.  “1 MW marks a very significant milestone for Green Charge Networks as we continue to diversify our customer base and increase our penetration in the rapidly growing intelligent energy storage market.  Energy efficiency initiatives can only take us so far.  The era of power efficiency using advanced software is the next frontier in energy savings.”  America’s aging grid is in need of an update. Not only can smart grid technologies like GreenStationTM  save businesses thousands of dollars on their electricity bills, they are also an important tool in both climate change adaptation and mitigation. GreenStationTM is designed to withstand storms as fierce as Hurricane Sandy or temperatures as extreme as the recent polar vortex. The combination of an aging utility grid and increasing storms due to climate change is a deadly mix. Between 2003-2012, the US experienced 679 major weather related outages, including 7 of the 10 costliest storms in US history (White House Report). GCN’s GreenStation TM energy storage technology helps businesses regulate their energy use so that even during extreme weather events they don’t pay special “demand” charges for peak energy use. If smart grid technologies like GreenStation TM were implemented nationally they could save the energy equivalent of 4,000 coal plants per year (Energy Manager Today).
About Green Charge NetworksFounded in 2009, Green Charge Networks is a leader in intelligent customer-sited energy storage.  The company gives commercial and industrial customers control of rising demand rates on their monthly electric bills. Green Charge Networks’ product complements solar PV, electric vehicle charging, and energy efficiency. The GreenStationTM was developed in partnership with leading utilities around the country, the U.S. Department of Energy, and Fortune 500 customers. GCN is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA with office in Brooklyn, N.Y. For more information, visit www.GreenChargeNet.com.
CONTACT:Tram Tran Green Charge Networks: 408-638-0072, tram@GreenChargeNet.com

 

~have a bright and sunny day~

Gathered and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker

Any of your comments/suggestions/questions will be welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.instagram.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.sunisthefuture.com

Homepage: http://www.sunisthefuture.net HTML adl Google+

Share

Copyright © 2011 · Susan Sun Nunamaker All Rights Reserved · Sunisthefuture.net