Posts Tagged ‘Tony Seba’

24 September

Sharing Clean Disruption NOW-Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation Explained by Tony Seba

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This is a repost from one of our sister publication, Windermere Sun, below:

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A terrific presentation by Tony Seba, Instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption, and Clean Energy, on explanation for Why Current Energy & Transportation Will be Obsolete by 2030 should not be missed by any one interested in present and future trend! It was presented as the keynote at the Swebank Nordic Energy Summit in Oslo, Norway, on March 17th, 2016. It is based on the book “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation“, asserting that four technology categories will disrupt energy and transportation by: 1. Battery/Energy Storage 2. Electric Vehicles 3. Self-Driving Vehicles 4. Solar Energy.

The outcome of the Clean Disruption is such that by 2030:

  • All new vehicles will be electric
  • All new vehicles will be autonomous (self driving)
  • Oil will be obsolete
  • Coal, natural gas, and nuclear will be obsolete
  • Individual car ownership will be obsolete
  • All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)

EV (electrical vehicles are more energy efficient and more powerful than internal combustion engine, better performance, and fewer moving parts (therefore less maintenance)).

Ford and GM are becoming mobility services companies in addition to EV services. GM is also investing $half a billion into Lyft (Uber’s competitor) and just purchased $1 billion worth of self driving cars company. Foxconn and various computer companies are also getting into EV market. EV (electrical vehicle) companies such as Nissan and Tesla are offering limited free EV charging networks. SV (self driving vehicle) Startup Volta is offering free EV charging in exchange for media rights at prime high-value properties. Ultimately, one may power one’s house with one’s car and vise versa. EV’s and SV’s are essentially Computer on Wheels and Power Plant on Wheel !About half of the world’s population are ready to receive SV’s (self driving vehicles)! About half of Uber rides are carpooling in San Francisco area. Parking spaces will become more efficiently utilized as power plants.

Solar energy has gone down in cost 200 times since 1970’s. Solar installations has doubled every 2 years since 1990’s. It will take 7 more doublings or 14 years before Solar Energy would become 100% of world’s energy. Since 1970’s, Solar PV has improved cost by three thousand times relative to most conventional forms of energy and its cost will continue to go down. Solar energy on roof tops, when unsubsidized, is just as cheap as conventional energy, that is what’s called the Grid Parity (which has already been reached in 47 states in the USA in 2016) and up to 80% of the global market by the end of 2017 (according to Deutsche Bank). The adoption curve of any technology throughout history has taken the form of S curve and will likely be the same for solar technology adoption. The tipping point for Solar to reach its full adoption, commented by Tony Seba, is what he calls the Solar God Parity, the Point of No Return regardless where one is anywhere on planet earth, the cost of producing energy through solar rooftop is cheaper than the cost of transmission. Mr. Seba anticipates the Solar God Parity will be reached by 2020, the point of disruption or tipping point. Utility scale solar in USA and elsewhere on earth, unsubsidized, has dropped to 5 cents/kWh in 2015 in Nevada and in Saudi Arabia at 4.9 cents/kWh. (consider: oil at 5.8 cents/kWh is equivalent to $10 per barrel). Cost of solar continues to drop. This is all happening right NOW!

Further interview with Tony Seba, below:

Can you believe it ?! In USA, we would only need 10,000 sq miles of solar to power the whole country, compared to U.S. oil and gas industry leasing 150,000 sq miles of land and water to pump oil and gas to produce one third of our energy needs. So, in USA, oil and gas industry is using 15 times as much area to generate one third as much energy produced by solar. In USA, we have up to 13,000 sq miles of parking space, so simply by placing solar canopies on all the parking spaces would generate more energy needs for the whole country for a year. Furthermore, converting just 10% of our parking lots to solar canopies would produce sufficient energy to power all of our electric vehicles in USA for a year. Yes, we’re looking forward to an exciting Clean Energy Future! It is important for policy makers to realize that they have the choice either to Lead or to Follow. If policy makers want to create jobs and wealth, it is necessary to lead rather than to follow. So, let’s vote for politicians who will lead and support clean and solar energy.

Here, in Windermere Sun, we look for ways to help our readers/viewers to be better prepared for the transition into our new Clean Energy Age. We will help you to find ways to reduce cost of living and develop new business models and formats in this Clean Energy Age through information and collaboration.

 
Windermere Sun-Susan Sun Nunamaker
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~have a bright and sunny day~

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14 October

100% Electric Transportation and 100% Solar By 2030

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Dear Friends, Visitors/Viewers/Readers,

Capturing The Sun is also available at www.sunisthefuture.com (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)

Capturing The Sun is also available at www.sunisthefuture.com (credit: sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker)


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This is a presentation titled “Clean Disruption: 100% Electric Transportation and 100% Solar Energy By 2030“, presented to AltCars Expo and Conference in Santa Monica, CA, by Tony Seba, on Sep. 19, 2014. In his matter of fact manner, Mr. Seba pointed out the historical pattern of disruptions from the past as a way to help us to envision our future of Solar-Electric-Self Driving Vehicles, below:

 Mr. Seba points out the 5 reasons why EV (electric vehicle) is “disruptive”:

  1. Electric Motor is 5x+ more energy efficient than the internal combustion engine (ICE).
  2. EV energy costs are 10x cheaper than ICE vehicle.
  3. EV maintenance costs are 5-10x cheaper than ICE vehicle.
  4. Wireless charging
  5. Electric Motor is far more powerful than ICE.

The question to ask now is: how long will the transition take from ICE to EV? It is comforting to know that since 2010, the battery costs have been dropping at ~16%/year as a result of 3 multi-trillion dollar industries (IT/Electronics, Automotive, and Energy) all interested in investing in battery technology. The simple fact that Tesla’s $5 Billion Battery GigaFactory is being built will double world battery production and will bring down the battery pack costs by >30%, leading to the eventual cost of an average EV at US$31,000 by 2020 and low-end EV at US$21,000 by 2022. Therefore, mass migration from ICE (gasoline) to electric vehicles is anticipated to occur around 2017-2018 and 100% of mainstream cars will be electric by 2030.

Another functionality of the EV is its eventual autonomous feature. Along with this feature, there will be improved highway capacity and higher efficiency. This will translate to a shrinking auto industry and shrinking need of parking spaces or need of car ownerships. Solar industry has been growing exponentially 43%/year since 2000. If such growth rate continues, 100% of the energy in the world will be solar by 2030. We will be facing a new world, a cleaner, healthier, and more efficient world.
~have a bright and sunny day~
Gathered, written, photographed, and posted by sunisthefuture-Susan Sun Nunamaker

Any comments and suggestions are welcomed at sunisthefuture@gmail.com

Please also get into the habit of checking at these sites below for more on solar energy topics:

www.sunisthefuture.net

www.youtube.com/user/sunisthefuture

www.kiva.org/team/sunisthefuture

www.facebook.com/sunisthefuture

www.pinterest.com/sunisthefuture

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